Political Report #1447 How will Venezuela’s High Court Affect the Election?

by Steve Ellner

The decision of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice to name all five members of the National Electoral Commission opens the door for the holding of elections for the National Assembly (AN) in December. Juan Guaidó will undoubtedly be replaced as the AN’s president, thus undermining the legitimacy of Washington’s strategy to achieve regime change in Venezuela. In one sense, the elections will be a repeat of the presidential elections of May 2018 which the “radical” opposition boycotted, unlike the “moderate” opposition. In another sense, however, the nation’s political climate has changed significantly as many Venezuelans opposed to the government have become disillusioned with Guaidó as a result of a string of fiascos beginning with his self-proclamation as president on January 23, 2019. A major blow for Guaidó has been the surprising emergence of Claudio Fermín of the Mesa de Diálogo Nacional (MDN) and his recognition of Nicolás Maduro as the nation’s legitimate president. Fermín, who has long been a conservative on economic policy, hits particularly hard against the “radical” opposition, labelling the call for abstention in the 2018 elections a “fraud” and ruling out alliances with any group that supports U.S.-imposed sanctions against Venezuela. The “radical” opposition has attempted to discredit the MDN by accusing its president Luis Parra of corrupt dealings, while the Trump administration has imposed sanctions on him. But Fermín’s credentials of personal honesty are impeccable dating back to his term as Caracas’ first elected mayor in the early 1990s, and thus the MDN cannot be passed off as a shady fringe group. In short, the Supreme Tribunal’s selections, a decision which the MDN hailed, signals a shift in the Venezuelan political environment with far-reaching international ramifications.

“Guaidó at best has a very tenuous claim to be head of the assembly, and none to the presidency. Before splashing onto the global stage through the mechanisms of Venezuela’s old regime and external imperial powers, he was an insignificant and easily manipulatable back bencher. As part of an agreement with a coalition of right-wing parties, in January 2019, Guaidó assumed the head of the assembly for a year. U.S. Vice President Mike Pence then leveraged Guaidó’s new position to have the Trump administration recognize Guaidó as Venezuela’s president under Article 233 of the country’s constitution, even though none of its six conditions applied to the situation that Venezuela was facing. Furthermore, an interim president must call elections within 30 days-something Guaidó obviously did not do. In addition, his term as assembly president lapsed this January. While 50-some countries-all allies of the United States-might support Guaidó’s claim to the presidency, it is important to remember that almost three times as many do not. That is why international institutions such as the United Nations, which make their decisions based on a democratic vote rather than via the bullying and strong arming of an imperialist power with its own economic and geopolitical interests at stake, still recognize Maduro as Venezuela’s legitimate and duly elected president. Guaidó is truly a tragic figure, but it is hard to feel sorry for someone who has made common alliance with such despicable figures that have a callous disregard for the rule of law.